Old Jets, Full Shops: 5 Stocks That Benefit

The delivery math is not friendly to airlines. Industry forecasts point to roughly 17,000 unfilled commercial aircraft orders and more than 12 years of work at current production rates. With new jets constrained, carriers are flying older airframes longer, pushing engine shop visits, component overhauls, and spare-parts consumption higher.

Two linked realities matter for investors now. First, services are increasingly the growth engine. Engine makers often emphasize lifetime service revenue through long-term agreements tied to the installed base. Second, the maintenance ecosystem is tight. Outside research indicates engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) demand could outpace industry capacity by about 17% through the end of the decade. That imbalance generally favors suppliers with scarce content, sticky contracts, or incremental bay capacity.

Below are five research candidates positioned to benefit if the global fleet stays older for longer and if engine shop visits keep rising faster than the industry can add capacity.

TransDigm: proprietary parts ride every visit

TransDigm Group ( $TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated $1,324.56 ) supplies highly engineered, often sole-source components that airlines touch repeatedly over an aircraft’s life. The company continues to add aftermarket content, most recently by acquiring a PMA and aftermarket parts maker, reinforcing its exposure to recurring shop-visit activity.

Recent market data show TransDigm operates with an operating margin around 47%, a sign of the pricing power the business model can support when demand exceeds near-term capacity. If engine and nacelle visits keep climbing while the airframe replacement cycle remains bottlenecked, that margin structure could stay well supported. The caveat is familiar. Airlines and MROs are pushing harder for PMA alternatives where they exist, and pricing scrutiny can increase when material lead times stretch.

Investors may want to track three indicators that would confirm aftermarket pull-through: content share on legacy engine families, lead times on proprietary consumables, and whether acquisition pacing keeps aftermarket mix high.

HEICO: PMA parts gain share as fleets age

HEICO Corporation ( $HEI HEICO Corporation $345.21 ) is the largest independent provider of FAA-approved parts manufacturer approval (PMA) replacement parts, with a catalog of more than 19,500 parts and hundreds of new introductions each year. PMA parts are FAA-certified alternatives to original-equipment spares that can lower material cost without sacrificing certification.

HEICO’s Flight Support franchise is built for exactly this moment. As operators seek lower total cost of ownership on aging airframes, PMA penetration tends to grind higher, especially on mature engine families. Valuation is not trivial, with a P/E near 64, so execution and new-part cadence matter. Investors may want to watch certification timelines and any OEM pushback that could slow adoption.

Two practical markers are worth tracking: part-introduction run-rate and large airline approvals for PMA on high-usage components. Both tend to correlate with sustained aftermarket share gains when fleets run older.

GE Aerospace: services backlog is the lever

GE Aerospace ( $GE GE Aerospace $369.00 ) continues to lean into services. Management cited a commercial services backlog near $170 billion and highlighted expansions across the external MRO network to support CFM-powered fleets. Internal materials point to a robust shop-visit pipeline and high spare-parts backlogs, a combination that usually supports pricing and mix as long as utilization stays healthy.

The installed base story is straightforward. A large share of the CFM56 narrowbody fleet has yet to complete a second shop visit, and utilization has been stable. If engine removals keep outpacing capacity additions, GE’s service margins and cash conversion could remain firm. Shares have risen about 20% this year on recent market data, so investors will want to monitor how much of that strength already prices in continued service outperformance.

A counterpoint is capacity. If authorized shops and partners add bays and technicians faster than expected, turnaround times could fall and parts backlogs could ease, moderating pricing power. Any change in airline utilization would also feed through quickly to visit timing.

RTX (Pratt & Whitney): inspections raise near-term volume

RTX Corporation ( $RTX RTX Corporation $187.99 ) reported a total company operating margin around 10% and a backlog of roughly $271 billion, including a substantial commercial component. Pratt & Whitney continues to work through a powder-metal inspection program on geared turbofan engines, which has required accelerated removals across part of the fleet. In parallel, carriers continue to sign and renew long-term maintenance agreements that anchor service relationships.

The inspection overhang has been a cost headwind, but it also raises near-term shop-visit volumes and deepens ties with operators. The watch items are execution and compensation accruals. Any stumble in Airbus A320neo delivery cadence would also affect the rate at which the installed base grows.

AAR Corp: more bays when airlines need them

AAR Corp. ( $AIR AAR Corp. $143.14 ) is a pure-play beneficiary of tight MRO capacity. The company recently completed an expansion in Oklahoma City, adding more than 80,000 square feet and three additional 737-capable bays tied to a long-term airline commitment. When fleets age and retirements are deferred, incremental bay space tends to fill quickly.

Price action reflects that position. Shares are up about 109% over the past year and roughly 73% year to date on recent figures. The opportunity is balanced by constraints, including skilled labor availability and wage inflation that can limit throughput. Investors should track facility openings, long-term airline maintenance agreements, and component-repair backlog as near-term indicators.

Another factor is mix. Heavy checks and engine-adjacent work tend to carry different margins and throughput profiles than lighter airframe tasks. Watch the balance of heavy maintenance versus component work as a signal for revenue quality.

Capacity and traffic are the swing factors

The services case rests on basic arithmetic. Record backlogs and slower-than-desired production mean older airframes will likely fly longer, especially outside widebody replacements. If airline traffic stays resilient and shop-visit intervals remain compressed, suppliers with scarce content and contracted services should keep seeing healthy demand.

Through the next few quarters, three indicators will tell investors whether the services flywheel keeps turning. First, Airbus and Boeing production progress, since each jet not delivered keeps an older airframe in service. Second, engine shop-visit cadence and parts lead times, because persistent bottlenecks usually support pricing and mix. Third, announced MRO footprint additions by OEMs and independents, which can slowly ease constraints if staffing keeps pace. Power and electronics supply have also been swing variables across industrial supply chains, a dynamic echoed in Onsemi’s 24% Drop Resets the Power Case. And the capital required to add industrial capacity competes with energy infrastructure needs, a theme showing up in AI’s Power Crunch Puts Nuclear Back in Focus.