Onsemi’s 24% Drop Resets the Power Case
Key points
- Shares fell 23.7% in the latest session and 28.6% over one month after a three-month rally.
- Q1 revenue was $1.51 billion with 38.5% gross margin, and Q2 outlook is $1.535 to $1.635 billion.
- Automotive revenue was about $797 million, and AI data center revenue more than doubled year over year.
- Main risk: silicon carbide pricing and flat auto demand could slow margin expansion.
ON Semiconductor (
That reset lands alongside improving fundamentals. The company posted first-quarter revenue of $1.51 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of 38.5%, and guided second-quarter revenue to $1.535 to $1.635 billion with further margin expansion. Management highlighted accelerating AI data center power demand while automotive remains the base. The question now is whether those engines can defend margins as the market retests the story.
A sharp reset after a fast run
The stock’s pullback forces a valuation and execution check. Recent market figures show an equity value near $35.5 billion and a price to earnings ratio near 184 on recent results, which means mix shifts and margin cadence can have an outsized impact on sentiment. Even after the drop, shares are up about 67% year to date and roughly one third below the 52-week high, a range that amplifies each incremental data point. Episodes like this are not unique to semis, as names facing execution checkpoints often see sentiment snap back and forth, as in
Auto and power mix vs new engines
Automotive is still the base of the story. Company disclosures show automotive revenue around $797 million in the first quarter, and management indicated automotive is roughly flat sequentially into Q2 as it ships to natural demand. Industrial remains meaningful as well.
What changed in 2026 is the emergence of the AI data center power stack as a second engine. Management said AI data center revenue more than doubled year over year and rose over 30% quarter over quarter on broader adoption across the power tree with multiple chip platforms and large cloud operators. The company also continues to emphasize 900 volt electric-vehicle architectures on its EliteSiC platform, positioning for content growth even if unit volumes are uneven. That power demand theme rhymes with the broader infrastructure strain discussed in
Utilization and margins are the swing factors
Gross margin printed 38.5% in Q1, and management expects sequential expansion through the year as internal loadings improve. That depends on ramping higher-value programs, including Treo devices for software-defined vehicles and silicon-carbide power devices such as JFETs, a type of junction field-effect transistor, plus continued gains across AI data-center power stages.
Management commentary also pointed to early signs that could support factory utilization. Backlog is starting to layer in and lead times are beginning to extend. If those indicators hold, the margin improvement case strengthens. But if utilization lags because orders slide or mix tilts back to lower-margin components, the expansion path looks tougher.
What will decide the next move
The next few prints will hinge on whether revenue tracks the $1.535 to $1.635 billion outlook and whether gross margin expands from the current 38.5% base. Bookings, backlog, and lead times will reveal utilization into the second half, especially in automotive. If AI data-center growth can keep compounding faster than 30% quarter over quarter and 900 volt EV programs convert design wins into volume, the drawdown may look like an overshoot. If automotive stays flat and pricing tightens, the reset could take longer to resolve.
Where the reset can extend
The bear case is straightforward. Pricing pressure in silicon-carbide power devices or a slower than expected recovery in automotive and industrial demand could weigh on gross margin right as new programs scale. A structural share loss or a guidance reduction would add to the pressure and extend the reset. High-multiple stocks absorb more volatility on incremental bad news, and